Monday 31 October 2011

Single GPs prediction for Carbon Intensity - Results

Taking the first 14 days as a training data set (from 27/06/2011 to 10/07/2011), I apply Single GPs to predict Carbon Intensity for the UK in the next 30 days (from 11/07/2011 to 10/08/2011). It generates a result, which can be seen from the picture below:
Single GPs for Carbon Intensity in the UK from 27/06/2011 to 11/08/2011.


I use the constant hyperparameter set of [-1.1112; -0.4744; 9.7377; -0.2624; -0.6790; -0.2624; -0.5132; -0.8945; -1.1858; -0.8945; -2.9447] to generate this result. The Mean Squared Error (MSE) for this period is 2233.

Moving on to the user consumption prediction, the file of user's consumption has two column: date&time, and the usage. The user usage is recorded every two minutes, as a result each day supposed to contain 720 values. However, there are some values missing in some specific days. For example, in 'ecenergy23@ecs.soton.ac.uk.csv', it only has 712 values on 09/09/2011 (8 values missing), and 719 values on 11/09/2011 (1 value missing). It could be more because I have not checked them all.

Thus, to apply GPs for user consumption, we firstly need to fill the missing value to make sure that it has a full 720 values for each day. Currently, the date & time column is in a format of 'dd/MM/yyyy hh:mm:ss'. We might need to convert the time, which is "hh:mm:ss" to the number of minutes for that day. The value now should be "dd/mm/yyyy A", where A = hh * 60 + mm (we do not consider seconds as it is always zero value). The x-axis now can be represented by A/1440.

4 comments:

  1. Hi Henry,

    your approach to fill-in the missing values sounds good.

    Why do you think you have such large deviation from the ground truth?

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  2. What I can see from the prediction graph is that the MSE on Monday and on Saturday (weekly) is quite high. The other days seems working well.

    Yes, the hyperparameter has been iterately trained during the prediction period.

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  3. Hi Henry, did you mean to reply to my other comment?
    I do not quite understand your reply :-/

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  4. Yes, it is for your other comment. Sorry Enrico.

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